A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
